An iMission K-12 Recruitment Article

American K-12 schools are facing an enrollment cliff challenge: A perfect storm of declining birthrates and demographic changes that mean many schools are shrinking — some to the point of insolvency. 

The Los Angeles Unified School District, one of the largest in the country, enrolled almost 750,000 students in 2003. Today, that number is 413,800, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Fewer students means fewer full classrooms, fewer jobs for teachers, and ultimately, fewer schools. 

This massive social change is already affecting K-12 schools of every kind – public, private, charter, and magnet options. The fallout will likely be felt for a decade, and not every school will survive. 

K-12 schools should see this as a call to hone their community outreach and marketing to improve the way they attract and nurture families so they can fill their classrooms with students. 

Understanding the Enrollment Cliff

According to the National Center for Education Statistics, enrollment in U.S. elementary and secondary schools is expected to decrease by 8 percent between 2019 and 2030. 

The causes are complex but stem primarily from falling birth rates and broad demographic shifts. 

Birthrates in the aftermath of the 2008 recession saw a notable drop and have remained lower than in previous decades. This translates to fewer children entering the K-12 education system each year.

As a result, overall school enrollment will fall by more than four million students from 2019 to 2030. 

Regional Differences and Urban Enrollment Trends

Not all areas of the United States are experiencing the enrollment cliff equally. Some regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, see sharper declines due to aging populations and out-migration to other states.

However, every region of the U.S. is expecting declines. Even the south, bolstered by growing populations, is projected to see a two percent decline in enrollment. 

Urban centers often face intensified enrollment challenges. Factors like the rising cost of living and housing affordability push some families out of cities and into suburban areas, where they may opt for different school options.

Enrollment Across Elementary, Middle, and High Schools

The enrollment cliff’s effects are not uniform across all school levels:

Elementary Schools experienced the initial impact, facing declining enrollments in recent years.

Middle Schools are currently seeing a decline in enrollment as the smaller cohorts of younger students move upwards through the educational system.

High Schools are projected to see the most significant enrollment drop in the second half of the 2020s.

Declining enrollment can be scary for school employees because it can quickly send a school into a downward spiral from which it can never recover. Falling enrollment means that classes become a little smaller, athletic teams become a little more sparse. Soon, programs start getting cut, high-quality teachers leave, and families start looking elsewhere. 

Some charter and magnet schools will close over the next decade, while others will thrive, with robust recruitment pipelines and full classes. 

The Importance of Marketing in the School Choice Era

Thriving schools invest heavily in marketing — and they do so across the entire year. The old strategy of ads and emails only during the application season is no longer sufficient. Instead, schools must employ a 12-month brand-building strategy that seeks to amplify reputation and increase word-of-mouth support. 

In this competitive environment, it’s increasingly vital for K-12 schools to engage in effective marketing strategies to highlight their strengths and attract families by:

• Showcasing Unique Programs: Schools can promote specialized programs, extracurricular offerings, or unique teaching approaches to differentiate themselves.
• Building a Strong Online Presence: A robust website and active social media presence make schools visible and accessible to interested families.
• Community Engagement: Actively foster a positive school image and connections with the surrounding community to build support and positive word-of-mouth endorsements.
• Effective storytelling: Highlight individual faculty members, student achievements, and on-campus events to display the unique experiences students have at your school. 

Take The Right Action Today

The future of your school depends on the actions you take today. An investment in marketing is an investment in your school’s long-term viability. When you build your online brand, when you turn current families into ambassadors, you improve your reputation for future families — even those who may be years away from applying. 

The alternative is too rickety to build a future on: an open house or two, a blitz of Facebook ads, a mailer. A flurry of activity during application season will not build a healthy enrollment pipeline. It’s time to think bigger.  

The enrollment cliff is coming, and many schools are already suffering its effects. Don’t wait to decide your strategy until it’s too late. 

Ready to Elevate Your School’s Recruitment Strategy?

At iMission, we specialize in helping K-12 schools create year-long recruiting marketing plans to attract and engage the right families. Our expert team is here to support you every step of the way, from building a robust recruitment pipeline to creating personalized outreach campaigns that resonate. Contact us today to get started!